COVID19 ANALYSIS BY THE R42 INSTITUTE

We are tracking the spread of COVID19 in the Bay Area region of Northern California.

Graphs provided by Aikora Health with data from county websites and NBC News.

This graph shows the total cases in the Bay Area at a county-by-county level. Of course, it is increasing because the graph is a cumulative number. We see the more densely populated counties and also, coincidentally, larger populations having more cases, such as San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo. It is coincidentally because the graph has adjusted the the lines to per 100,000 people. (Desktop view only.)

This graph shows deaths per 100,000 population by county. Deaths are more indicative because many cases are not reported because we don't have enough tests to test people who are asymptomatic. Of course, some deaths are also not reported, if they happen, and tests are not done. This graph is interesting because Marin, a smaller county, is over indexing. (Desktop view only.)

This graph shows a moving 7-day average of the growth rate of new cases over the last 7 days. Looks like the rate of growth is slowing. Note, even if the growth rate tends to zero - cases are still being reported, just not growing each day. We will have to watch and fit with a different curve, if the growth rate becomes negative. (Desktop view only.)

This graph shows the number of new deaths each day in the San Francisco Bay Area. It includes a trend line which shows that the death rate is still growing. (Desktop view only.)

This graph shows new cases averaged over the previous 7 days for each county in the Bay Area. The lock down started on March 16, with the peak in cases following 2 to 3 weeks later (possibly, partly due to there being more testing). We can also see a gradual drop off after this peak. Note, that the peak in deaths arrived 2 to 3 weeks after the peak in cases. (Desktop view only.)

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